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New York Times analysis concluded that violence is less concentrated among those predicted to be high risk than Chicago police claim. And a

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Chicago Sun-Times report revealed that the list is far longer than claimed, including nearly 400,000 people, roughly 15% of the city’s population.Serial Data Scope Analytics

This is not only a police issue. The Illinois Department of Child and Family Services recently scrapped a predictive analytics system intended to identify children at risk for violence, for a simple reason – it didn’t work. What’s more, some child advocates say that the use of such systems is putting children in danger, doing exactly the opposite of what they’re intended to do.

Sorting the population into “Naughty” and “Nice” lists makes people uncomfortable, for good reasons. And often, the evidence shows it doesn’t work.

Hargrove takes a different approach.

He looks at the crimes themselves, searching for clusters of similar murders that suggest a serial killer at work.

Why serial killers? Starting with the obvious, a serial killer causes more deaths than an ordinary murderer. Getting one out of circulation saves lives.

Serial murders can be difficult to solve because:

  • Serial murderers may have no close connection to the victims.
  • “Linkage blindness” -- the failure of police to share information about crimes - especially those committed in different jurisdictions -- prevents collaboration in solving them.
  • Political concerns may prevent recognition or acknowledgment of serial murders.

If serial murders could be identified through data, police departments could be better informed and able to collaborate.

But the FBI data was incomplete, because many murders are not reported to the FBI.

So Hargrove set out to fill in the gaps. Using methods, such as Freedom of Information Act requests, that are familiar to journalists but uncommon for data geeks, he assembled the most complete set of United States murder data in existence.

His data collection methods are not the only area where his methods diverge from the usual practices of the much-heralded data science community.

Eschewing machine learning and elaborate math, he relied on his own knowledge of crime, and a trial-and-error process. He tested variables and various combinations thereof, which he thought might signal clusters of murders committed by single individuals.

He aimed to come up with a combination that would flag the work of one of the most vicious known serial murderers, Gary Ridgway as one distinct cluster. Ridgeway (often called the “Green River Killer”) is known to have murdered 49 women in the Seattle area between 1989 and 2001, and he has claimed to have murdered 75 to 80 women in all.

After months of experimentation, he found something that looked promising. The concept was strikingly simple: categorize murder reports by location, sex of the victim and method of killing, then look for clusters of unsolved murders in any category.

This method highlights the Green River killings. It also flags many other clusters throughout the country. The question was – did those other clusters actually represent the pattern of other serial murders? If this could be confirmed for several of the clusters, then Hargrove’s technique might make it possible to identify previously unrecognized serial killers at large.

He reached out to several police departments with his findings. Several did confirm that they were aware of these patterns and believed that they represented the actions of serial murderers.

From the perspective of data analysis alone, this was success.

But the value of data analytics depends upon what decision makers are willing to do with the information.

Hargove is quick to point out that, even as murder rates decline, unsolved murders are increasing. And not every police department has welcomed his advice.

Several years ago, working as a database research consultant for media production company E.W. Scripps, he reached out to a police lieutenant in Gary, Indiana, and explained a pattern that suggested a serial murderer killing women by strangulation in the lieutenant's jurisdiction, but got no reply. He tried the police chief - again no reply.

Four years later, when police arrested a man for the murder of a woman in Hammond, Indiana, which borders Gary, he led them to the bodies of six more victims.

Still, nobody has talked to Hargrove, or the public, about the possibility that some or all the murders he pointed out might be the work of the same man. You can hear Thomas Hargrove’s distress as he speaks of it.

Since then, he has retired from E. W. Scripps and founded the Murder Accountability Project, a group of retired homicide experts that includes criminologists, investigative journalists and law enforcement professionals, among others. The group is devoted to educating the public on the importance of accurate information about homicides. It gathers and publishes that information.

Want to learn more, and perhaps add some valuable analysis of your own?

Visit the Murder Accountability Project website: http://www.murderdata.org/

Review the algorithm and download the data: http://www.murderdata.org/p/data-docs.html

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